Monetary Policy

The European Central Bank is expected to avoid firm guidance as renewed energy-price pressure and geopolitical risk complicate the path beyond July. Market participants are still pricing the possibility of further tightening by September and another move before year-end.

Bitcoin climbed back toward the $60,000 level after Fed Chair Kevin Warsh said inflation risks have come down and reaffirmed the central bank’s 2% target. Warsh also pointed to AI-driven investment as a possible force that could expand the economy and reshape future policy.

Euro area growth is softening, yet policy makers may be becoming more alert to the risk that inflation expectations re-ignite. With Brent crude still elevated and confidence weakening, the ECB’s next move could tilt toward cautionary tightening rather than cuts.

Euro area inflation risks now lean toward an overshoot of the ECB’s 2% target, with Brent crude above $100 a barrel potentially pushing prices higher. Policymakers also face renewed pressure to protect a fragile recovery if Middle East instability keeps energy costs elevated.

The U.S. Senate has passed a bipartisan housing affordability bill that includes a temporary ban on a central bank digital currency. The measure is expected to move quickly through the House and could become law soon.

The Federal Reserve is widely expected to leave benchmark rates unchanged at today’s policy meeting, the first under Chairman Kevin Warsh. Markets are watching for any shift in language that could signal a more hawkish stance on inflation and future cuts.

December US CPI expected at 2.7% YoY as markets prepare for the report; investors watch labor market, inflation trends, and Fed policy signals.

The Federal Reserve meets September 16–17, with markets expecting a rate cut. Powell’s guidance on inflation, jobs, and Trump’s political pressure could set the tone for markets.

Learn how central banks like the Fed, ECB, and BoJ influence Forex markets. Discover their tools, interest rate policies, interventions, and tips for traders.