Prediction Markets

The CFTC has sent two event-contract rule plans to White House review as it seeks to cement federal oversight of prediction markets. The move could intensify clashes with states arguing that sports-linked contracts on platforms such as Kalshi amount to gambling.

A Sixth Circuit panel ruled that Kalshi’s sports-related event contracts are not federally regulated swaps, placing them within reach of state gaming regulators in Ohio and Tennessee. The decision deepens a growing appellate split over prediction markets and increases the likelihood that the U.S. Supreme Court will take up the issue.

New York officials have sued Polymarket US, alleging the prediction market provider is operating without a gambling license in the state. The case intensifies the national dispute over whether event contracts fall under federal derivatives oversight or state gambling law.

Kalshi says it has not been contacted by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission and does not believe it is facing a formal examination over trading activity. The prediction market attributes unusual patterns in its ether perpetual market to liquidity incentives, while attention grows around volume quality and surveillance in prediction markets.

The Commodity Futures Trading Commission has cautioned prediction market operators that contracts based on what a named person may say or do can carry heightened manipulation risks. The advisory does not ban the category, but it signals that platforms may need strong safeguards, public scrutiny, and independent verification before listing such markets.

Former FTX CEO Sam Bankman-Fried is asking the U.S. Supreme Court to review lower-court rulings that upheld his fraud conviction. His lawyers are challenging trial evidence tied to customer losses and a court-ordered forfeiture order of $11 billion.

Connecticut has sued Kalshi in a bid to halt the platform’s sports event contracts in the state, intensifying a broader legal clash over prediction markets. With state and federal courts issuing mixed decisions, the fight is increasingly framed as one that could eventually reach the U.S. Supreme Court.

LayerZero introduced ATLAS, a trading and settlement engine built on its Zero blockchain for crypto-native venues and institutional platforms. ZRO jumped roughly 30% as the plan tied trading activity more directly to the token through a buy-and-burn mechanism.

CFTC Chair Mike Selig said the agency is preparing to use existing authority to shape crypto market rules if Congress does not pass the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act. The move could put the derivatives regulator at the center of U.S. digital asset oversight as Senate negotiations remain unresolved.

South Korea has ordered local access to Polymarket blocked, citing alleged violations tied to gambling activity. The move places the country among a growing group of jurisdictions restricting the prediction market platform.

Crypto startups raised $11.2 billion in the first half of 2026, with disclosed capital flowing toward regulated, permissioned businesses. Payments and stablecoins, prediction markets, and trading platforms led the fundraising as major financial institutions backed licensed market infrastructure.

Kalshi is discussing a funding round of at least $750 million that could value the prediction-market platform at $40 billion. The talks come after a $1 billion raise at a $22 billion valuation in May and as the company weighs a potential IPO in 2027.

The Commodity Futures Trading Commission has cautioned prediction market platforms that some incentive programs may create compliance and market abuse risks. The warning targets deficient filings, volume based rewards and market maker arrangements that could encourage improper trading behavior.

Kalshi is integrating Solana-based DoubleZeroEdge into its prediction market order book to support institutional demand for low-latency data. The move brings a Wall Street-style distribution model to onchain market infrastructure, giving connected traders simultaneous access to live exchange and onchain data.

Wintermute is preparing a major expansion into traditional markets as crypto trading activity cools. The firm aims for noncrypto markets to generate more than half of revenue by the end of 2027, compared with 10% now.

FlightAware has voluntarily dismissed its lawsuit accusing Kalshi of using its flight data and trademark without permission. The withdrawal, filed without prejudice, comes as Kalshi’s flight-cancellation contracts show low trading volume compared with the platform’s broader activity.

The CFTC has ordered Kalshi to continue operating in New York after the state sued to block its sports prediction markets. The move deepens a regulatory clash over whether event contracts fall under federal derivatives oversight or state gambling law.

OKX executive Haider Rafique is skeptical the Clarity Act can clear Congress this year, arguing partisan incentives may overpower the crypto industry’s push for regulatory clarity. He also says bitcoin may have limited upside if the bill passes but could face sharper pressure if it fails.

Hyperliquid ETF inflows have slowed sharply after a strong May and June, with competitive pressure emerging across crypto derivatives and prediction markets. HYPE remains a fast-growing asset, but market participants are weighing whether the protocol can defend share against larger and more regulated rivals.

Polymarket is reportedly pursuing a new funding round at a $20 billion valuation, months after closing capital at a $15 billion valuation. The move comes as prediction markets draw deeper interest from crypto platforms, brokerages and regulated competitors.

Fun CEO Alex Fine says standalone crypto onramps and bridge interfaces are likely to disappear as applications embed payments into their own products. The shift would move Web3 closer to a Web2 style experience, where users focus on the app action rather than the payment plumbing underneath.

Coinbase’s second-quarter results fell short as weak crypto prices and subdued trading volumes pressured revenue and adjusted EBITDA. Analysts broadly pointed to market conditions rather than execution, while debating when trading activity can recover.

New York has sued Kalshi, alleging the prediction-market platform offers sports and event wagers without a gaming license. The state is seeking to bar the company from operating what officials describe as an unlicensed gambling business, while pursuing restitution, damages and civil penalties.

Coinbase shares fell in after-hours trading after the crypto platform reported second-quarter revenue below Wall Street expectations. Weak digital asset trading, lower transaction revenue and pressure on subscription and services revenue kept investor attention on the company’s push beyond spot trading fees.