Event Contracts

The Commodity Futures Trading Commission has cautioned prediction market platforms that some incentive programs may create compliance and market abuse risks. The warning targets deficient filings, volume based rewards and market maker arrangements that could encourage improper trading behavior.

The Commodity Futures Trading Commission has cautioned prediction market operators that broad, template-style event contract certifications can fall short of regulatory requirements. The advisory underscores growing scrutiny of a fast-expanding market that includes political, sports and other event-based contracts.

The U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission has ordered Kalshi not to reverse Michigan customer transactions tied to a state court order. The move deepens a broader clash between federal derivatives oversight and state efforts to treat certain prediction market contracts as illegal gambling.

European regulators have warned that some yes-or-no prediction-market contracts may be prohibited for retail clients when they qualify as financial instruments. The move raises compliance pressure on fast-growing event-contract platforms operating across crypto and traditional finance.

Meta is reportedly developing Arena, an experimental prediction market app that would let users forecast outcomes across politics, sports, entertainment and global events. The project uses a points-based format for now, reviving Meta's Forecast effort as regulators intensify scrutiny of event contracts.

Charles Schwab is partnering with Cboe Global Markets to launch yes-or-no options tied to the S&P 500, marking its first step into prediction markets. The rollout is expected in the coming months as the broker explores additional benchmark-based contracts.