Kalshi

The U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission is proposing two rules to oversee leveraged, margined and financed crypto transactions through a new exchange category. The move advances federal crypto policy after Congress failed to complete market structure legislation, but direct spot trading remains largely outside the agency’s rulemaking reach.

The CFTC has sent two event-contract rule plans to White House review as it seeks to cement federal oversight of prediction markets. The move could intensify clashes with states arguing that sports-linked contracts on platforms such as Kalshi amount to gambling.

A Sixth Circuit panel ruled that Kalshi’s sports-related event contracts are not federally regulated swaps, placing them within reach of state gaming regulators in Ohio and Tennessee. The decision deepens a growing appellate split over prediction markets and increases the likelihood that the U.S. Supreme Court will take up the issue.

New York officials have sued Polymarket US, alleging the prediction market provider is operating without a gambling license in the state. The case intensifies the national dispute over whether event contracts fall under federal derivatives oversight or state gambling law.

Kalshi says it has not been contacted by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission and does not believe it is facing a formal examination over trading activity. The prediction market attributes unusual patterns in its ether perpetual market to liquidity incentives, while attention grows around volume quality and surveillance in prediction markets.

The Commodity Futures Trading Commission has cautioned prediction market operators that contracts based on what a named person may say or do can carry heightened manipulation risks. The advisory does not ban the category, but it signals that platforms may need strong safeguards, public scrutiny, and independent verification before listing such markets.

Public trade data from Kalshi’s bitcoin and ether perpetual-futures markets shows a large share of sampled activity came from recurring fixed-dollar trade sizes. The pattern points to possible automated execution, though the data does not identify the traders or establish wrongdoing.

Kalshi is facing scrutiny after a trader alleged that unusual activity in its ether perpetual futures pointed to inflated crypto volume. The company’s crypto lead rejected the wash trading claims, arguing that critics misunderstood its market structure, fee filings and volume reporting conventions.

Prediction markets sharply lowered expectations for near-term passage of the Clarity Act after Senate negotiations hit another impasse. The setback came hours before a key procedural vote, with Republicans accusing Democrats of offering little movement from prior positions.

Bitcoin is consolidating below the $80,000 resistance area as traders assess progress on the CLARITY Act and await the Federal Reserve’s next rate decision. Technical traders are watching a bullish flag structure, with $75,993 seen as the key support level that could determine whether the upside view remains intact.

Europe’s securities regulator has warned that major prediction market platforms generally need authorization to serve EU users. ESMA also flagged the risk that an AI-driven technology stock sell-off could spill into crypto markets.

EUR/USD remained caught in a narrow range after stronger US labor data boosted expectations that the Federal Reserve could raise interest rates. Traders are watching support near 1.1567 and resistance at 1.1700 as European growth and inflation data move into focus.

GBP/USD has pulled back from this month’s high as investors reassess Federal Reserve policy risk after a hawkish Jackson Hole message. Technical traders are watching 1.3470 as the next downside area if sellers keep control.

EUR/USD remains on the defensive after a decline that began from its August 20 peak, with traders weighing rising Federal Reserve rate-hike odds and persistent inflation risks. Technical traders are watching whether the pair can extend losses toward the 1.1475 area before any potential rebound develops.

Kalshi suffered a major legal blow after a federal appeals court in Nevada rejected its argument that state gaming regulators lack authority over its sports event contracts. The decision conflicts with another federal court outcome involving New Jersey, increasing the likelihood that the U.S. Supreme Court may eventually be asked to resolve the dispute.

Connecticut has sued Kalshi in a bid to halt the platform’s sports event contracts in the state, intensifying a broader legal clash over prediction markets. With state and federal courts issuing mixed decisions, the fight is increasingly framed as one that could eventually reach the U.S. Supreme Court.

Crypto startups raised $11.2 billion in the first half of 2026, with disclosed capital flowing toward regulated, permissioned businesses. Payments and stablecoins, prediction markets, and trading platforms led the fundraising as major financial institutions backed licensed market infrastructure.

President Donald Trump is expected to attend a White House innovation meeting with executives from crypto, prediction markets and artificial intelligence. The gathering is set to precede the inaugural event of a new Commodity Futures Trading Commission advisory committee focused on innovation and regulatory priorities.

Kalshi is discussing a funding round of at least $750 million that could value the prediction-market platform at $40 billion. The talks come after a $1 billion raise at a $22 billion valuation in May and as the company weighs a potential IPO in 2027.

Kalshi is integrating Solana-based DoubleZeroEdge into its prediction market order book to support institutional demand for low-latency data. The move brings a Wall Street-style distribution model to onchain market infrastructure, giving connected traders simultaneous access to live exchange and onchain data.

FlightAware has voluntarily dismissed its lawsuit accusing Kalshi of using its flight data and trademark without permission. The withdrawal, filed without prejudice, comes as Kalshi’s flight-cancellation contracts show low trading volume compared with the platform’s broader activity.

The CFTC has ordered Kalshi to continue operating in New York after the state sued to block its sports prediction markets. The move deepens a regulatory clash over whether event contracts fall under federal derivatives oversight or state gambling law.

Polymarket is shifting short-dated crypto contracts from single-price snapshots to time-weighted average pricing after complaints and academic research highlighted possible settlement manipulation. The change is designed to make last-second price pushes harder and more expensive in fast-moving bitcoin markets.

Polymarket is reportedly pursuing a new funding round at a $20 billion valuation, months after closing capital at a $15 billion valuation. The move comes as prediction markets draw deeper interest from crypto platforms, brokerages and regulated competitors.