U S Supreme Court

The U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission is moving to formalize its authority over prediction-market event contracts by treating them as swaps under federal derivatives law. The effort comes as several states argue that some sports-related contracts belong under gambling oversight, setting up a high-stakes legal clash.

A Sixth Circuit panel ruled that Kalshi’s sports-related event contracts are not federally regulated swaps, placing them within reach of state gaming regulators in Ohio and Tennessee. The decision deepens a growing appellate split over prediction markets and increases the likelihood that the U.S. Supreme Court will take up the issue.

New York officials have sued Polymarket US, alleging the prediction market provider is operating without a gambling license in the state. The case intensifies the national dispute over whether event contracts fall under federal derivatives oversight or state gambling law.

Kalshi suffered a major legal blow after a federal appeals court in Nevada rejected its argument that state gaming regulators lack authority over its sports event contracts. The decision conflicts with another federal court outcome involving New Jersey, increasing the likelihood that the U.S. Supreme Court may eventually be asked to resolve the dispute.